Investment Analysts Association (IAA) expects Fund Flows from abroad, Vayuphak Fund and 10,000 baht handout measures to support SET Index at year-end to increase by up to 1,494 points.
Mr. Sombat Narawuttichai, Secretary-General of the Investment Analysts Association (IAA), revealed the results of a survey of the opinions of 24 analysts and mutual fund managers regarding investment perspectives for the fourth quarter of 2024 under the main assumptions.
This year’s average crude oil price is $79.50 per barrel.
Forecast of Thai GDP growth in 2024 from the original 2.64% (July 2024) has decreased to 2.62%.
The GDP assumption for 2015 is expected to be at a minimum of 2.4% and a maximum of 3.5%, with an average of 3.01%.
The Risk Free Rate used in valuation has an average of 2.65%.
The average risk premium of the stock market is 7.76%.
It was found that the factors affecting investment direction until the end of 2024 are divided into:
Positive factors led by Fund Flows from abroad to the Thai stock marke
t and the Vayuphak Fund. Secondary factors are the 10,000 baht handout measure and the direction of US interest rates, followed by the performance of listed companies in 2024 and the domestic economic situation.
Negative factors include political factors abroad, the reduction or termination of quantitative easing (QE) measures by major countries around the world, followed by global economic factors.
In terms of the BOT’s policy interest rate forecast at the end of 2024, most analysts see the policy interest rate at 2.25%.
Most forecasts of the MPC’s policy interest rate adjustment by the end of 2025 are expected to be at 2%.
The market’s forecast for net profit per share (EPS) in 2024 is 89.91 baht, down from the previous survey, which was 91.4 baht per share. The average EPS growth in 2024 is expected to be 12.18%. The market’s forecast for net profit per share (EPS) in 2025 is also 98.65 baht.
The index target at the end of 2024 is an average of 1,494 points, and the SET Index is expected to fluctuate
in the range of 1,365 to 1,634 points throughout 2025, closing at the end of 2025 at 1,614 points.
Analysts recommend diversifying your investment portfolio, dividing it into:
Thai stocks or Thai stock funds 32.22%
Foreign stocks or stock funds 23.65%
Bond Fund 20.30%
Real estate fund or REIT 9.04%
Gold or gold fund 8.35%
Cash and short-term deposits 6.43%
For opinions on investing in foreign stocks/foreign stock funds, we recommend US stock funds, especially in the technology-AI and Healthcare groups. Selective Asia, such as China, India, Vietnam.
For Thai stock investment, it is recommended to increase investment weight in the retail, finance, tourism and technology categories, while reducing investment weight in the agriculture, automotive, energy and petrochemical categories.
The stocks that analysts recommend from 5 or more agencies are as follows (arranged by abbreviation)
AOT is supported by tourism stimulus measures and an increase in international passengers in the last two months of the y
ear.
BDMS benefits from increasing international patients and an aging society
CPALL benefits from recovering spending and benefits from the digital wallet project. The economy and consumption recover from the ten thousand baht.
GPSC sees that it is supported by the downward trend in interest rates and the clean energy power purchase project in the form of a direct power purchase agreement (Direct PPA) that will attract foreign investors.
For stocks that should be avoided, they include automotive stocks that have not shown any clear signs of recovery, banking stocks, and export stocks that may decline after rising strongly in the previous period.
Ready to propose to accelerate investment in large infrastructure to build on Tourism Province and Connects, including government investment that supports potential, economic growth, supports New S-Curve industries to occur in a tangible way, including assistance to the business sector, such as policies to support tourism, attract foreign investment, support n
ew investment projects such as Entertainment Complex, including soft loan measures and refinancing for SMEs, followed by assistance to the public sector, such as restructuring retail/household debt, tax reduction measures, and supporting tuition fees to encourage the new generation to have more children.
Source: Thai News Agency