GH Bank expects real estate confidence index to recover faster, positive factors from government economic stimulus measures – MPC cuts policy interest rate
The Government Housing Bank (GHB) revealed data from the Real Estate Information Center, reporting on the creation of the housing developer confidence index in Bangkok and its vicinity in the third quarter of 2024, which found that the confidence of real estate developers was at 45.1, slightly down from the confidence index in the second quarter of 2024, which was at 45.2, as a result of interest rates that remained high, causing real estate sales to decline accordingly.
However, the survey found positive signals from the confidence index on performance, new project launches and/or new phases, positive factors from the government’s economic stimulus measures, such as the digital wallet project and the opening of Vayuphak Fund investment, including the reduction of the policy interest rate by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the creation of low-int
erest loan products by the GH Bank at the end of the year. It is confident that the confidence index of real estate entrepreneurs will adjust higher than the median value of 50.0 faster than expected, signaling that entrepreneurs have more confidence in a positive view of the real estate business situation.
Mr. Kamolpop Virapala, President of the Government Housing Bank (GHB), revealed the report on the Current Situation Index of Housing Developers in Bangkok and its vicinity in the third quarter of 2024 from the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), Government Housing Bank, that the Housing Developers’ Confidence Index in Bangkok and its vicinity in the third quarter of 2024 was at 45.1, slightly lower than the second quarter of 2024, which was at 45.2, and lower than the same period of the previous year, which was at 49.7, and was below the median of 50.0 for the seventh consecutive quarter since the first quarter of 2023. The factor was the direction of interest rates at that time, which were high, causi
ng real estate sales to drop to 40.7 from 47.3 in the previous quarter, and investment confidence to drop to 47.4 from 47.6
in the previous quarter.
However, REIC found positive signals from many factors, including the government’s various economic stimulus measures, such as the digital wallet project, which injected money into the system, resulting in domestic consumption starting to recover, and the opening of investment in the Vayupak Fund, which made investment in the stock market more active, including the reduction of the policy interest rate by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) from 2.50% per year to 2.25% per year, and the GH Bank’s creation of low-interest loan products for low- and middle-income earners, including vulnerable groups, towards the end of the year, resulting in more positive signals in many areas, as reflected by the confidence index in many areas. The improvement compared to the previous quarter consisted of the operating results increasing to 42.0 from 39.5, the opening of new pro
jects and/or new phases increasing to 50.7 from 49.1, the operating cost (inverse) increasing to 40.4 from 38.9, and the employment increasing to 49.6 from 48.7. Meanwhile, the confidence index of medium-small entrepreneurs (Non-listed Companies) was 41.0, increasing from 34.6 in the previous quarter, reflecting that entrepreneurs in this group tend to be less concerned about the current business situation. Therefore, from the signal from REIC, GH Bank is confident that the confidence index of real estate entrepreneurs will increase above the median value of 50.0
faster than expected because real estate entrepreneurs have more positive signals of confidence in the real estate business situation.
Source: Thai News Agency