Bangkok, The Chairman of the Shippers’ Council of Thailand (STI) stated that the private sector is keeping an eye on the export situation in 2024, which is volatile and difficult to predict, but estimates that in 2024 the export numbers should grow at 100%. 1-2 and propose that the government sector help take care of interest costs for the private sector as well.
Dr. Chaichan Charoensuk, Chairman of the Shippers’ Council of Thailand (STC), said that the international trade situation in Thailand in December 2023 is comparable to the same month of the previous year. It was found that exports were valued at 22,791.6 million US dollars, expanding by 4.7% and had a value in baht of 795,824 million baht, expanding by 2.2% (when deducting gold, oil, and weapons. It was found that exports in December expanded by 2.1%), while imports were valued at 21,818.8 million US dollars, shrank by 3.1%, and had a value in baht of 770,822 million baht, shrank by 5.3%, resulting in Thailand’s trade balance. In December 2023, the
surplus was equal to 972.8 million US dollars or equal to 25,002 million baht.
In this regard, the overall picture of Thailand’s international trade in 2023, compared to the same period last year, found that Thailand exported a total value of 284,561.8 million US dollars, a contraction of 1.0%, and a value in baht of 9,809,008 million baht, a contraction. 1.5% (when deducting gold, oil, and consumables It was found that exports during January – December shrank by 0.6%), while imports were valued at 289,754.3 million US dollars, shrank by 3.8% and had a value in baht of 10,111,934 million baht, shrank by 4.3%, resulting in the trade balance of Thailand in 2023 has a deficit of 5,192.5 million US dollars, or 302,926 million baht.
However, the RTA has set a work target for 2024 to push Thai exports to grow by 1-2 percent, with factors to watch that may have an impact, including: 1. Movements in the value of the baht. slightly weakened The value of the baht moves within the range of 34-35 baht and remains highl
y uncertain. 2. Policy interest rates in many countries remain stable at a high level. Federal Reserve Bank The policy interest rate will continue. The adjustment is expected to be made sometime in May. As a result, the policy interest rates of various countries Globally, it continues to remain at a high level. In addition, the Red Sea situation may affect oil prices, which will cause consumer products to increase. Leading to higher inflation. 3.Geopolitical conflicts The prolonged period has an impact on trade and the overall economy. Especially the critical situation in the Red Sea in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is the main shipping route to Europe. United States and Middle East As a result, freight rates will increase and shipping times will be longer. Including other conflicts such as Russia, Ukraine, and the South China Sea, there are still high uncertainties. 4. Manufacturing Sector Index (PMI) of the United States, Europe, and Japan at the levels of 50.3, 46.6, and 48, respectively, with a tendency
for the manufacturing sector to improve. But you must follow the situation closely. Many countries are still expanding below the Base Line level, especially European countries which have continued to be below the Base Line level for more than 8 months. And 5. Concerns about production costs that are still uncertain, such as electricity costs, minimum wages. and freight rates for routes from Europe, the Middle East, and the United States began to increase.
In addition, the NRCT has important recommendations, including: 1. Consider reducing the policy interest rate to an appropriate level consistent with the current inflation situation. Including supervision to reduce the gap (Spread) in interest rates on loans and deposits. 2. Accelerate support for environmental assistance measures for entrepreneurs, such as low-interest loan measures to improve efficiency and production processes to support environmental measures that will be more intense this year. 3. Accelerate the organization of export promotion activit
ies in important target markets. Including accelerating free trade negotiations (FTA) such as Thailand-EFTA and Thailand-GCC to create a handicap and reduce obstacles in accessing markets and sources of raw materials for Thai entrepreneurs and 4. Situation of the problem of attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea area. Export operators request that freight and additional costs be charged based on actual increased costs. Gradually adjusted up in steps. Notice and request the ship line to negotiate with the port to extend the Free Time period in the port to 21 days (from the normal 3-7 days) to reduce costs beyond the specified time and extend the period of use of containers to reduce costs. Demurrage/ Detention to the shipper, etc.
Source: Thai News Agency